Hunting for Barolo 2019 bargains
February 2023 portfolio review
Hello wine lovers,
Have you heard?
Barolo 2019 is a classic.
With Burgundy 2021 out of reach for mere mortals and the upcoming Bordeaux En Primeur 2022 expected to be tepid, suffice to say that I’ve spent all my time (and $$$) on Italian wines.
Last month, I focussed all my attention on Barolo 2019, which turned out to be a spectacular vintage; Bolgheri 2020 boosted my hopes further for a strong year of Italian releases. I’ll share the few gems I’ve purchased this month for the Saturnalia Model Portfolio, built using the Saturnalia wine investment platform. You can read the background of this project here:
What happened in the market?
The Saturnalia Model Portfolio (ex-cash) advanced by 1.4% in February. The Liv-ex 100 recorded positive gains of 0.4% during the same period. In relative terms, the portfolio outperformed the index by 1.0%.
While the Liv-ex 100 recorded its first positive move, after several months of decline since September 2022, the market hasn’t turned just yet — the Liv-ex Fine Wine 100 was the only major index to see a positive movement in February, driven by impressive gains from some of the usual Tuscans (Tignanello 2019 +4.7%, Masseto 2018 +4.5% and Sassicaia 2019 +2.8%) probably riding the wave of new releases.
Portfolio Performance
The major movement that impacted the Saturnalia portfolio was:
Figeac 2019, + 26%↑
Once again, Figeac 2019 was the largest mover and shaker of this portfolio. What a ride! After a poor January, it seems that the recently upgraded château is back in favour. The Saturnalia model now shows the Figeac 2019 as over-valued.
However, I am not selling it, for two reasons.
The first one, I think it’s essential to retain exposure to the newly-upgraded château, at least until we see what’s the new pricing for the 2022 En Primeur season. I am expecting an upgrade in price in line with the promotion and the consequences on back vintages may be, on the balance of probability, positive. That’s because the 2022 vintage is likely to be an ‘off-vintage’; therefore, market participants may find past ‘on-vintages’ value-for-money.
And secondly, a very simple point which may resonate with a few wine collectors: this wine will be spectacular to drink in 10 years’ time.
Barolo 2019 & Other Bargains …
Do you remember when I was trying to convince you that Barolo 2013 was a great (undervalued) vintage?
It seems as though, many wine merchants draw comparisons between the critically acclaimed 2016 vintage and the recently released 2019, for obvious price reasons. Barolo 2019 is undoubtedly a classic, one of the best vintages in recent history. However, many respected Italian wine critics seem to be more convinced of its similarities with 2013.
The main reason is that 2013 and 2019 both experienced similar weather patterns.
The most significant difference with 2016, in fact, comes from the rainfall pattern. 2013 saw less abundant rain in winter when it’s crucial to create a long growing season; instead, it was more abundant in the months leading up to harvest, when the risk of flavour dilution is highest.
At the risk of sounding like a broken record, rising temperatures are something that perhaps we need to get used to — in fine wine, for sure. A prolonged summer and a few heat waves in late winter somewhat hindered this vintage finesse.
However, all three, 2013, 2016, and 2019, can be considered classic vintages of the last decade — however, 2016 is more classic, perhaps the benchmark vintage.
All this to say: when hunting for a bargain in the 2019 Barolo, I think it’s crucial that the price point of 2019 be comparable to those of 2013, rather than 2016.
And, of course, because of the hype created by wine merchants to prop prices up, it isn’t an easy feat! Take for example Vietti Brunate 2019. Vinous’ Antonio Galloni scored it 98 points — it’s priced at a very small discount from the better 2016 vintage and at a great premium from 2013.
Note that, while Galloni scored the Vietti Brunate 2016 also a 98-point and the 2013 a 96-point, the discrepancy in price still doesn't account for storage costs. In this case, I’d be inclined to say — buy the Vietti Brunate 2016!
💎 Vietti, Ravera 2019 & 2013 Barolo
More generally, Vietti was the big winner of the 2019 Barolo campaign — and their Ravera (a commune in the Novello cru) was awarded 100-points from Antonio Galloni at Vinous.
The price for the 2019 still comes higher than the 2013 but lower than 2016. All three vintages have been awarded the maximum score by Antonio Galloni. The latest trade pins the price of the 2019 at £206/bottle while the 2016 is currently at £242/bottle and 2013 at £150/bottle.
My thesis is that the 2013 is, simply, a bargain. The 2019’s future price trajectory may be pushed upwards by the positive press of Vinous and other press, and more generally, by wine merchants, comparing this vintage to the 2016.
Because of these reasons, I’ve added both 2019 and 2013 to the portfolio.
💎 Elvio Cogno, Ravera 2013 Barolo
You know I am a big fan of Elvio Cogno — their 2016 Vigna Elena is quite a bargain! And I couldn't add a Vietti Ravera, without adding Elvio Cogno’s Ravera too. They own a range of vineyards in this Ravera cru, the best spot in the Novello MGA, the commune where you’ll find the estate. Walking across the hillside, you’ll know their vineyards because they’ve got the healthiest vines.
The pricing of their wines is fairly stable; however, their 2019 isn’t yet available (at least not in the UK). 2016 and 2013 are priced at respectively at £75/bottle and £50/bottle. For the time being — I’ve added the 2013 vintage to the portfolio and, depending on its pricing, I may add some of 2019.
It’s still hard to find pricing and available offers on the market, as Italian fine wines don’t seem to follow the standard dynamics of the Bordeaux and more generally French fine wine market. While a few large brands do (Tenuta San Guido, for instance), the vast majority of wines are still sold by winemakers without accounting for vintage quality (and demand).
However, times are changing.
For once, wine merchants have already started applying different mark-ups based on the predicted demand for a wine/vintage.
In addition, a combination of insanely outrageous pricing in Burgundy and Champagne and a streak of upcoming not-so-great vintages in Bordeaux, have turned collectors’ heads to other wine regions — Italy’s Piedmont & Tuscany among those.
The last couple of years’ Barolo En Primeur trials may also signal a mentality shift among the Italian regional associations.
All in all, I strongly believe that investing in Italian wine still offers great value, especially when combining more established brands with some niche wines. As they come on the market, I will be sure to add some more to the portfolio — Burlotto, Paolo Scavino, Ceretto are on my radar. In addition, Nelson Pari’s Barolo review showcases some hidden gems.
Note: if you are a wine merchant and want to share some Barolo or Bolgheri offers with the readers of In the mood for wine, please hit reply.
This newsletter is free for all readers. The best way to support me is to subscribe, re-share it with your wine-lover friends, and follow me on Instagram.
Thanks for reading this!
Resources
($) = behind a paywall
Saturnalia — Barolo 2019 Analysis ($), sign up here for a free trial
Jancis Robinson — Barolo 2019 the tasting notes and Barolo 2019 a classic in the making ($)
Vinous — Barolo 2019 reviews and 2019 Barolo: Back on Track ($)
Nelson Pari — for more niche wines and creative (though very thorough) reviews, you should follow Nelson’s substack and read his 2019 Barolo del Comune report (it’s free!)
Disclaimer
My investment thesis, risk appetite, and time frames are strictly my own and are significantly different from that of my readership. As such, the investments covered in this publication and in this article are not to be considered investment advice nor do they represent an offer to buy or sell securities or services, and should be regarded as information only.
That was an incredible read.
You've just reminded me that I need to add some Barolo 2019s to my cellar - don't know whether to be thankful or not...
Great post, Sara!