What stands out is how easily strong demand gets mistaken for evidence of fair value. The wine sold, so the release looked successful—but that success belonged largely to the merchants, not necessarily to the collectors who bought it. I’m not convinced the market has become any better at separating scarcity and launch momentum from actual investment value. As long as the downside sits with the collector, what incentive does anyone else have to become more disciplined?
In fact, revising this piece made me reflect on exactly that. Sure, it was a success for Cheval Blanc and a success for the merchants who sold it. But I also think there's only so many times you can screw over your clients before they're no longer willing to play along. As I've tried to say multiple times, a deal isn't a good deal unless it's a win-win. And en primeur hasn't been a win for the final customer in a loooooong time.
I’m guessing that these are unrealised gains ex-storage and fees too
Yep
What stands out is how easily strong demand gets mistaken for evidence of fair value. The wine sold, so the release looked successful—but that success belonged largely to the merchants, not necessarily to the collectors who bought it. I’m not convinced the market has become any better at separating scarcity and launch momentum from actual investment value. As long as the downside sits with the collector, what incentive does anyone else have to become more disciplined?
In fact, revising this piece made me reflect on exactly that. Sure, it was a success for Cheval Blanc and a success for the merchants who sold it. But I also think there's only so many times you can screw over your clients before they're no longer willing to play along. As I've tried to say multiple times, a deal isn't a good deal unless it's a win-win. And en primeur hasn't been a win for the final customer in a loooooong time.