One for the cellar
Making sense of Bolgheri 2021 price
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Hello fine wine lovers,
Are you, too, upset about the Sassicaia 2021 price hike?
Don’t worry, that’s what I am here for. I will cheer you up by:
explaining why Sassicaia's rise in price is justified;
and offer alternative wines that you could invest in, if 1. didn’t convince you.
The Appellation
It’s dawned on me that the reason why fine wine investors only seem to be buying Sassicaia and Ornellaia is that they don’t know any other wine in the appellation or, quelle surprise, Italian appellations are a bit complicated…
So here’s a simple explanation:
There are three (!) appellations in Bolgheri — DOC Bolgheri Rosso, DOC Bolgheri Superiore (superiore means superior) and DOC Bolgheri Sassicaia (yes, Sassicaia has its very own appellation!)
The two main differences between the three are yields and ageing. I am not going into details (but they can be found here). As far as the grapes are concerned, Cabernet Sauvignon, Franc and Merlot can be used as well as other varieties such as Syrah and the local Sangiovese. Here’s a great resource that I found on YouTube that summarises the main appellation characteristics:
Bolgheri became an internationally known region following an event in 1974 arranged by Decanter where a 6-year-old Sassicaia won over an assortment of Bordeaux wines. Before this, Bolgheri had been relatively anonymous producers of ordinary white wines and rosés.
I recently tasted the following Bolgheri Superiore 2021 wines which you can find in this open spreadsheet (tab: All Bolgheri wines).
Sassicaia 2021
Is it expensive? Yes.
Is it good? Yes.
Is it worth it? The market says … it WAS cheap!
In the chart below, you can see the dark bar chart shows release prices — the 2021 vintage was released at £2,500/12x750ml at a 4% increase from the 2020 vintage and at a 25% increase from the 2019 vintage. However, you can see that the release price was very much in line with the market price of the last two vintages.
In addition, if we put the release price into context, the Wine Advocate (Monica Larner) awarded it 100 points. Based on that, the Liv-ex fair price tool shows that, the release price was well below fair value. As a caveat, the fair price value is based on one single wine critic which can bias this analysis. Having said that, I have not heard anyone saying anything other than the obvious: this wine is great.
The market agreed that it was the case, as in less than a month, the market value is now sitting at £3,000/12x750ml.
What about compared to 2016? While it’s still below 2016, we need to account for the time in the cellar, at a roughly 2% per year, the present value of the 2016 is £3,396 which means the 2021 is only 12% undervalued compared to 2016. We can therefore conclude that the 2021 is currently fairly priced at £3,000/12x750ml.
If you want to see the chart, formula and calculation, you can find in this open spreadsheet (tab: Sassicaia).
When it was released, I must admit, I thought that the price wouldn’t go much higher because of the general weak demand for fine wine.
The draft of this article originally said: “don’t worry, it’s a down market and the beautiful thing about down markets is that we can afford to wait and see if a better entry point comes around”. I was wrong, though I am convinced that prices might revert to the original release price and this spike is probably due to some wine merchants being tactical after the glowing reviews that came out.
Numbers aside, from a purely collector's point of view, Sassicaia 2021 is an incredible wine and one that will reward in future years, I am sure.
, who organised this tasting of Bolgheri 2021 vintage and last year’s 2020, said:2021 Sassicaia is the greatest vintage I've tasted from Tenuta San Guido since 2015. How on earth did they manage to build up such finesse and fruit quality without sacrificing the mid-palate and body?
It’s a must for a collector’s cellar.
What about the others?
The other famous -aia in Bolgheri, Ornellaia.
Vianney Gravereaux, Sales and Marketing Director, says of their latest vintage:
Likely the finest Ornellaia from the recent three vintages. It possesses significant maturity yet remains effortlessly light. Best enjoyed after 20 years to fully appreciate its depth and complexity.
What’s interesting it that they have adopted a completely different pricing strategy: they have decided not to increase their release price from the 2020 vintage (£1,850/12x750ml).
While Liv-ex shows a trading price of £1,250/12x750ml bottle (in chart below), I can still only find it at £1,850 in the market.
What’s interesting is that there seems to be a lot of value in the back vintages of Ornellaia, perhaps more so in the off-vintages: 2012 / 2014 and 2017, trading at a 30 - 20% discount from the 2021.
If you want to see the chart, formula and calculation, you can find them in this open spreadsheet (tab: Ornellaia).
The left field
Let’s not dwell on Sassicaia and Ornellaia!
The great thing about the Bolgheri 2021 vintage tasting is that one gets to compare the quality of those two brands having tasted over 30 wines and I want to share some of those that, I believe, consistently craft wines that rival those top brands.
Among the Bolgheri Rosso, I have a soft spot for Tenuta Sette Cieli, which I discussed here: A Bolgheri Estate to Watch) and Le Macchiole. Both these producers have beautiful Bolgheri Rosso but, to complicate life a little bit more, I am in love with their 100% Cabernet Franc (NOT a Bolgheri DOC wine, but a Toscana IGT), respectively Scipio & Paleo Rosso. An up-and-coming experimental winery — Podere il Castellaccio, also does a fantastic 100% Cabernet Franc, which is a Bolgheri DOC Superiore.
Among the Bolgheri Superiore, here’s my list:
Grattamacco 2021
Grattamacco is the second oldest Bolgheri estate, founded in 1977, and, like Michele Satta (see below Piastraia), it stands out as one of the pioneering wineries in the Bolgheri region for its use of Sangiovese in its blends. I didn’t publish a 2020 Bolgheri report, but looking at my notes now, the 2021 Grattamacco vintage is, for me, a big step up.
(Italian wine writer and judge, here on Substack) scores it only second to Sassicaia in his Undiscovered Bolgheri report.I don’t disagree.
Piastraia 2021
Michele Satta’s Piastraia is the best wine you’ve never heard of. Or is it just me? Looking at reviews in major publications, I don’t think the scores reflect the quality of the wines I’ve tasted both this year and the last.
Michele Satta is famous for bringing three important varieties to Bolgheri: Sangiovese, Syrah and Viognier. The effect of adding Sangiovese to the, otherwise Bordeaux blend, when cultivated in Bolgheri's distinct terroir, can still produce full-bodied reds that exhibit depth, elegance, and the potential for longevity, but also, contribute to the wine's complexity by adding a layer of Mediterranean character, a hallmark of Tuscan wines. This can manifest in the wine as juicy flavours, supple tannins, and, above all, saline notes, distinct from the more tannic and structured profiles of traditional Bordeaux blends.
Argentiera 2021
I’d like to delve more into this beautiful estate in a separate article as I’ve had a chance to preview their Villa Donoratico 2022 (DOC Bolgheri Rosso), their Argentiera 2020 and 2021 (DOC Bolgheri Superiore) and their new white, a Vermentino Scenario 2022.
One more thing.
Fabio Motta: while he’s not a newcomer to Bolgheri as has worked for many years with his father-in-law Michele Satta (Piastraia), in 2009, Fabio decided to set up his winery with the acquisition of 4 hectares of vines planted in 1997 within the Bolgheri DOC. In the cellar, Fabio follows a philosophy of “non-interference,” using natural yeasts and no filtering, crafting wines which excel in elegance and complexity rather than power and concentration.
A lot of potential!
Thank you for being here!
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👋 Sara Danese
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Here’s a reading list of some of the most liked content in this newsletter:
Cash-Equivalent Wines — a.k.a. a list of the best drinkable fine wines compiled by the best people in the wine trade.
A Tuscan Estate to Watch, Tenuta Sette Cieli, and why I believe this tiny Bolgheri Estate will prove a great investment.
Investment Ideas for Barolo 2019. It does what it says on the tin.
Has Fine Wine Hit Rock Bottom? ChatGPT was a fine wine investment analyst for the day, and shared which corners of the fine wine market are undervalued.
The Ministry of Silly Pricing. Discussing a few interesting releases on La Place …
How's the Champagne market looking? (Jul 2023 update) A collaboration withTom Hewsonlooking at 2013, 2014 and 2015 vintages.
The Earliest Harvest Ever. Talking about Bordeaux EP 2022.
My Fair Value a.k.a. Is Cheval Blanc Undervalued? Again, talking about Bordeaux EP 2022.
Hunting for Barolo 2019 bargains. Looking at the Ravera Cru for Barolo 2019.
Building a 36-bottle cellar, with ChatGPT. A starter cellar. (ChatGPT wasn’t a very great deal of help here.)
The Price of Wine. An economic paper on what are the drivers of fine wine prices in the long run.