The simple framework I use to judge EP pricing
A clean way to compare release prices with past vintages
The way I think about En Primeur pricing is very simple.
The 2025 has been released and is supposed to be a strong vintage. So I want to compare it with recent strong vintages — namely 2019 and 2016.
I take current market prices from sources I trust:
2016: ~£95 per 750ml
2019: ~£53 per 750ml
Consider that the 2016 vintage includes nine years of holding costs, while the 2019 includes six. These are not just storage and insurance, but also the cost of capital over time.
I start by isolating the cash costs.
I take the reception (£10 per 12 bottles), and storage and insurance costs (£31 per year per 12 bottles), and bring them forward to today using the Bank of England rate prevailing when each cost was incurred.
These costs add up to £22 per bottle for the 2016 vintage and £12.5 for the 2019 vintage.
I subtract them from the market prices, leaving £73.12 for 2016 and £41.51 for the 2019.
At this stage, I have removed the physical holding costs, but the prices still reflect the fact that capital has been tied up over time. I therefore discount these adjusted prices using the Bank of England rate path over the relevant period.
The result is £59.3 for the 2016 and £34.30 for the 2019.
In other words, once I strip out holding costs and the effect of time, these are the prices at which those vintages are comparable to the 2025. And both sit below the 2025 release price of £63 per bottle.
For me, Pontet-Canet 2025 is a pass.
Of course, some of you may think it’s unfair — or even ludicrous — to suggest that Pontet-Canet should be released at £34 per bottle. But that is roughly the level at which I would be willing to take the risk on the 2025 vintage, given today’s market conditions and the available alternatives.
This is simply how I think about allocating my capital. Pontet-Canet, in turn, will price its wines in a way that makes financial sense for them.
As one négociant put it to me, there have been too many “great” vintages in recent years. That, perhaps, is the point.
Thank you as always for being here!
Sara
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