In the Mood for Wine is the go-to newsletter for the next generation of fine wine lovers and investors. The best part? It’s free. Help us keep it that way by sharing it with everyone—yes, literally everyone!
When in 1990 Prof. Orley Ashendfelder, a Princeton economist, published what is known as the “Bordeux Equation”, it caused quite the stirr.
Robert Parker called it ludicrous.
William Sokolin (of Sokolin LLC) thought it was hysterical.
The New York Times published an op-ed titled “Keep Those Economists Out of the Vineyards.”
Why such an outrage?
The equation promised to tell a great vintage and a bad one apart, with three simple inputs: winter rainfall (ideally, 200-300 mm to prepare the soil), growing season temperature (19-20°C for ideal ripening) and harvest rainfall (less than 30 mm to avoid dilution and rot). A great vintage is simply one where nature aligns perfectly with these parameters. In such years, wines are not only of outstanding quality but also offer immense potential for price appreciation.
There's no need to elaborate on why those who profit from consumer ignorance were outraged by this. Sophocles said it best, “profit is sweet, even if it comes from deception.”
This newsletter started two years ago to answer the question: “Can wines from bad vintages be good investments?” The question of vintage, whether we like it or not, is central to the appreciation of wine prices over time.
That is to say, the question of vintage is central to fine wine investing.
And that’s why, whenever you try to find out which vintages were good and which weren’t, you’ll find a sea of politically corrected language—rose-tinted-glasses-kind-of-reviews—that guarantee the amenability (and access) of wine critics to producers.
So, I will try to be as straightforward as possible here by sharing four key facts about what we know for certain when it comes to vintage and prices.
Fact 1: Vintage Matters More in Europe than the New World
Weather variability is the single greatest factor influencing vintage quality. In Europe—Bordeaux, Burgundy, Champagne and Northern Italy—the weather varies dramatically year to year. A summer of ideal warmth and a dry harvest can create exceptional wines; a rainy harvest can destroy them.
By contrast, the New World—regions like Napa Valley, Australia, and South Africa—benefits from far more consistent climates. Bad vintages are rare because the weather doesn’t swing as wildly.
For investors, this means:
European wines experience significant vintage variation. Good vintages become standouts and appreciate dramatically in value.
In the New World, vintage variation is minor, resulting in stable, less volatile price movements.
Bordeaux is the prime example: a good vintage with ideal weather parameters—winter rain to store water, a warm summer for ripening, and little rain at harvest—creates wines that can age for decades. A poor vintage? Lower demand and prices.
Fact 2: Bordeaux’s Market Structure Rewards Age
Because Bordeaux wines improve with age, there’s a built-in incentive to store young wines until they mature. This creates two distinct markets:
The Primary Market – Young wines sold “en primeur,” much like new issues in the securities markets.
The Secondary Market – Older, mature wines that command higher prices, similar to trading in the secondary financial markets.
For investors, the opportunity lies in buying the right vintage early—one with excellent weather conditions that will improve over time. When released wines are still young and relatively undervalued, those who understand the weather-vintage relationship can profit handsomely when the wines mature.
And this is what separates Europe from the New World. In Bordeaux, vintage quality swings like a pendulum: a year of perfect weather produces wines that become iconic, investable assets. A rainy harvest? The wines struggle to find buyers. The New World offers consistency but lacks these highs and lows.
Fact 3: Weather Predicts Quality, But Not Release Prices
Here’s where it gets interesting: while weather is highly predictive of how well a wine will age, it has surprisingly little influence on release prices.
Why?
Production Costs: In poor vintages, the cost of making wine can be higher—grapes need more care, sorting is labour-intensive, and yields are often lower. Release prices reflect these higher costs, not the quality.
Brand Over Weather: Producers price wines based on their reputation and long-term positioning. A bad vintage rarely sees a massive discount because admitting lower quality would damage the brand.
Short-Term Focus: The market for release wines tends to ignore the long-term potential of a vintage. Weather doesn’t dictate price until the wine has aged and proven itself in the secondary market.
For investors, this means understanding that vintage quality often “catches up” with prices over time. The release price of a wine from an exceptional vintage may look modest initially, but its value can surge as its quality becomes evident.
Fact 4: Vintage Quality Drives Long-Term Price Appreciation
In a recent paper called “The Price of Wine”, Dimson (Cambridge Judge Business School & London Business School) Rousseau (Vanderbilt University) and Spaenjers (HEC Paris) published one of the most convincing investigations into the returns of fine wine.
Among other variables, that of the relationship between vintage quality and wine price takes center stage.
Great Vintages Appreciate Faster: Wines from vintages with ideal weather parameters consistently outperform in the secondary market. They age gracefully, developing complexity and increasing in value.
Poor Vintages Offer Shorter Windows: Wines from challenging vintages often mature earlier, meaning they have less long-term upside for investors. While they can be good drinking wines, their ability to appreciate in price is limited.
In short, vintage is the compass guiding long-term price appreciation. Exceptional weather produces wines that not only taste better but also perform better as financial assets.
So, Can Wines From Bad Vintages Be Good Investments?
Yes—but with caveats. While good vintages dominate the conversation, savvy investors can still find value in “bad” vintages:
Top Producers: The best winemakers mitigate bad weather with exceptional vineyard management.
Discounted Prices: Wines from less favourable years often enter the market at lower prices, offering upside if they perform above expectations.
Historical Reassessment: Sometimes, wines from “bad vintages” surprise the market as they mature and gain complexity.
But let’s be clear: great vintages are where the real opportunity lies1.
They combine high quality with strong long-term demand, leading to the kind of price appreciation that fine wine investors dream about.
Thanks, as always, for being here.
👋 Sara Danese
This article was originally published in Italian - L’Equazione delle Annate, on WineWins, a wine investment company founded by sommelier Matteo Gavioli and entrepreneur Andrea Calzoni. Gavioli honed his craft in Italy's top restaurants and on the stages of prestigious wine events. Calzoni, a seasoned businessman and collector of vintage cars and art, brought his entrepreneurial flair. Together, they launched one of Italy's first companies to position wine as a true passion asset.
This newsletter is free for everyone, and the best way to keep it that way is by subscribing, sharing it with your wine-loving friends, and following me on Instagram. My priority is to keep this content accessible to all. If you'd like to support my work, you can do so by upgrading to a paid membership. Thank you for being part of this journey!
Disclaimer: The content provided in this article is for informational purposes only and does not constitute investment advice or a recommendation to buy or sell any financial product or investment. The value of fine wine investments may go down as well as up, and you may not get back the original amount invested. Past performance is not indicative of future results. Any opinions expressed are those of the author and are subject to change without notice. You should seek advice from an independent financial adviser if you have any questions regarding the suitability of any investment. 'In the Mood for Wine' is not regulated by the Financial Conduct Authority (FCA) and does not provide regulated investment services.
Thanks for this! A fine wine expert once told me that when in doubt, bet on the producers first. That said, I also enjoy discovering new winemakers: perhaps in good vintages now, after reading your post.